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Google's 200M-parameter time-series foundation model with 16k context

by codepawl on 3/31/2026, 5:21:59 AM

https://github.com/google-research/timesfm

Comments

by: EmilStenstrom

I somehow find the concept of a general time series model strange. How can the same model predict egg prices in Italy, and global inflation in a reliable way?<p>And how would you even use this model, given that there are no explanations that help you trust where the prediction comes from…

3/31/2026, 5:45:35 AM


by: EmilStenstrom

Here is the link to the blogpost, that actually describe what this is: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;github.com&#x2F;google-research&#x2F;timesfm?tab=readme-ov-file" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;github.com&#x2F;google-research&#x2F;timesfm?tab=readme-ov-fil...</a>

3/31/2026, 5:41:17 AM


by: kuu

It would be nice to add (2024) to the title, this is not news (see: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;research.google&#x2F;blog&#x2F;a-decoder-only-foundation-model-for-time-series-forecasting&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;research.google&#x2F;blog&#x2F;a-decoder-only-foundation-model...</a>)

3/31/2026, 7:39:04 AM


by: dash2

So the time series are provided with no context? It&#x27;s just trained on lots of sets of numbers? Then you give it a new set of numbers and it guesses the rest, again with no context?<p>My guess as to how this would work: the machine will first guess from the data alone if this is one of the categories it has already seen&#x2F;inferred (share prices, google trend cat searches etc.) Then it&#x27;ll output a plausible completion for the category.<p>That doesn&#x27;t seem as if it will work well for any categories outside the training data. I would rather just use either a simple model (ARIMA or whatever) or a theoretically-informed model. But what do I know.

3/31/2026, 6:27:11 AM


by: wiradikusuma

Also: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;github.com&#x2F;Nixtla&#x2F;nixtla" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;github.com&#x2F;Nixtla&#x2F;nixtla</a> and <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;facebook.github.io&#x2F;prophet&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;facebook.github.io&#x2F;prophet&#x2F;</a>

3/31/2026, 6:07:30 AM


by: ra

This has been around a few months now, has anyone built anything on it?

3/31/2026, 6:26:29 AM


by: croemer

(2024)

3/31/2026, 8:07:02 AM


by: Foobar8568

Somehow I missed that one. Are there any competition on this?<p>I always had difficulties with ML and time series, I&#x27;ll need to try that out.

3/31/2026, 5:36:18 AM


by: raghavMultilipi

This has been around a few months now, has anyone built anything on it?

3/31/2026, 7:10:46 AM


by: emsign

Can this finally break the stock markets?

3/31/2026, 7:20:02 AM


by: jdthedisciple

Let me be blunt: Shannon would tell us that time forecasting is bullshit:<p>There is infinitely more entropy in the real world out there than any model can even remotely capture.<p>The world is not minecraft.

3/31/2026, 6:26:44 AM


by: charlotte12345

[dead]

3/31/2026, 7:15:00 AM